Model output · compiled 25 Aug 2026 · not a forecast of fact
Lok Sabha 2029 — seat-by-seat projection
Every one of the 543 constituencies is called bottom-up on its own evidence: its real 2024 ECI margin, the actual assembly-segment votes cast in that seat since (Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, J&K 2024 · Delhi, Bihar 2025 · Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu 2026), documented local factors and 2025–26 events. The chamber totals are simply the sum of those 543 calls — aggregation, not allocation. Tap any seat for its full signal table.
The projected chamber
543 seats. The dashed line marks 272, the majority threshold.
316NDA
261BJP alone
181INDIA
23TVK
23Unaligned
Model-computed chamber. 543 seats, each called on its own evidence — its real 2024 result, its own assembly segments where a state has voted since, documented local factors and 2025–26 events — then summed. The BJP lands at 261, eleven short of a solo majority — with NDA allies at 59. The alliance clears 272 comfortably; the BJP alone does not. TDP and JD(U) remain load-bearing.
Map explorer
Every one of the 543 constituencies is drawn in its real location and coloured by projected winner. Start on the all-India map — tap or hover any constituency for its call and reasoning; open a state chip for that state — on its actual polygon or on the tiles — for the full signal table and the logic behind that call. Chips cover every state and UT.
How every seat is scored. Projected margin = 0.55 × (real 2024 LS margin, signed for the pick) + 0.45 × (the seat’s own post-2024 assembly-segment lead, discounted ρ = 0.6 for 2024 assemblies, 0.7 for 2025, 0.75 for 2026) + national incumbency (−2 NDA / +1.5 challengers) + documented local factors + documented 2025–26 events (post-Nitish JDU risk, Ladakh consolidation). Segment leads are computed from AC-level ECI votes aggregated through the official DataMeet AC→PC map (4,182 ACs); Haryana and Jharkhand use a win-count proxy calibrated on 86 PCs (lead ≈ 27.2×ΔW/n, R² 0.33); Assam is exact for 3 PCs and district-approximated for 11; Seemanchal and Kokrajhar segments are half-weighted for third-force distortion (AIMIM, BPF-vs-UPPL). Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are scored directly on 2026 three-bloc shares — the 2024 base is dead there. States with no election since June 2024 (UP, RJ, MP, GJ, KA, TG, AP, OD…) keep the modelled state-swing layer, labelled as such on the seat card. Seats are flipped wherever the evidence says so and re-solved to a zero-contradiction fixpoint; totals are pure sums of the 543 calls. Confidence: solid ≥ 10, lean 4–10, tossup < 4.
Rendering constituency geography…
Who is Prime Minister after the 2029 election
Seventeen named individuals, single numbers, summing to exactly 100. Conditioned on the seat model: NDA-led government ~78%, INDIA-led ~12%, hung or other ~10%. Portraits are hand-built editorial vector illustrations keyed to each figure’s recognisable features — real photographs cannot be embedded in a generated file.
How to read this. Modi's number is the joint probability that the NDA wins and he takes a fourth term at 78. Every point that age or the RSS's informal 75-year norm removes from his row lands almost entirely on Shah, Adityanath, Gadkari, Rajnath, Chouhan and Fadnavis — not on the opposition. Rahul Gandhi's ceiling is the INDIA bloc's ~12% path to power, of which he holds most but not all. The regional names are alive only in a hung house.